A New Day in the Heartland
With an oath and the stroke of a pen everything changed
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Today’s topics: Inauguration of Donald Trump, January 6th pardons, Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., avian flu, U.S. tariffs, Canada’s response to tariffs, Trump’s executive orders, electric vehicle investment, tax cuts, books, independent bookshops, the Democratic Party, corporal punishment, David Lynch, Roy Blount, Jr., Elon Musk, white supremacy, wind power, and podcast interviews with Dr. Chris Jones, and Rachel Stuckey-Slaton and Rachel Diodati.
Burying the Lede
On Monday, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States. His inauguration, which took place inside the U.S. Capitol, arrived on the fifth anniversary of the first reported COVID-19 case in the United States. Take that for what you will as avian flu spreads across the country. It was a grim speech followed by one that was even darker in an overflow room of supporters at the US Capitol. Still, Trump promised a new undefined “Golden Age” of America, which is certain to be complicated by many of his policies, particularly those introduced by executive order on immigration, energy, trade, and climate that will hurt the Heartland, disproportionately. And then on Monday afternoon he pardoned and commuted the sentences of nearly all the January 6, 2021 insurrectionists. I was a few blocks from the US Capitol that day and lived the aftermath of that terror that evening and for weeks that followed. These pardons are an extraordinary work at revisionist history and a vindication that mob violence, seditious conspiracy, and insurrection is permissible. Police officers were beaten, gassed, attacked with stun guns, and traumatized for years following as a result; some died. The insurrectionists assembled a gurney to hang Vice President Mike Pence. They hunted Nancy Pelosi. Julie Roginsky sums it up well on her Substack “Salty Politics.”
The Enduring Legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
Monday was Dr. Martin Luther, Jr. Day in the United States. Last week, former Arkansas Democratic nominee for governor Dr. Chris Jones joined the Flyover Country podcast to discuss Dr. King’s legacy. Dr. Jones encouraged listeners to reflect on Dr. King’s lesser known speeches and writings. I re-read King’s speech, “Beyond Vietnam - A Time to Break the Silence”, which he delivered at Riverside Church in New York in 1967. Late last year, on his Substack “Everything is Rocket Science,” Dr. Jones raised questions about Arkansas’s approach to prisons and modern slave labor, which is worth recalling as remember Dr. King. I published a paper on this topic titled “Prison Labor in America: History, Race, and State Power.”
A Flyover Country reader reminded me of this: In May of 1958, Ernest Green became the first black graduate of Little Rock Central High in Arkansas. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr, sat unannounced with the Green family in the east stands at Quigley Stadium. After the ceremony, Dr. King gave Ernie Green $15 as a graduation gift. That would be over $160 dollars today. Ten years later Dr. King was killed; 25 years later, a national holiday was established in his name. Dr. King had spent the night before Central's graduation at the home of Daisy and LC Bates. Daisy Bates’ statue is now in Statuary Hall in the US. Capitol in Washington, D.C.. The next day Dr. King spoke at the graduation of what is now the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff. Today, Dr. King has more streets named after him than any other American, at least 955 across 41 states and the District of Columbia.
Canada Prepares Retaliatory Tariffs Aimed at the Heartland
During his campaign, president Donald Trump promised a 25 percent tariff on all Canadian imports, which he reiterated during his inaugural address. He intends to impose those tariffs on February 1st, and Canada has prepared a series of retaliatory tariffs and export taxes that will punish the Heartland. Think whiskey from Tennessee, peanut butter from Kentucky, and pet food from Missouri, for example. Canada is planning $37 billion in retaliatory tariffs with another $110 billion to be imposed at a later date. Food-commodity markets are very likely to impacted as Canada imports more food products from the U.S. than any other nation by a lot. Export taxes would be targeted towards things the U.S. needs and cannot easily replace, which could impact uranium needed for nuclear power in Arkansas, crude oil for refineries in Louisiana, and aluminum for manufacturing, transportation and construction in Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio.
In a paper for the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, Stuart Trew noted,
U.S. demand for these key Canadian exports is inelastic, meaning demand is unlikely to change much even with price fluctuations. An export tax would therefore not likely affect the flow of Canadian trade to the U.S., but it would raise costs for U.S. buyers, including crude oil refineries, nuclear power plants, agriculture, downstream industries reliant on natural gas (e.g., chemicals), and U.S. manufacturers reliant on Canadian aluminum.
Prepare for Greater Disruption from Avian Flu in Flyover Country
I have written before about the impact that avian flu is already having poultry operations and egg prices across the Heartland. I expect that to continue particularly considering that on Friday Georgia suspended all poultry operations statewide. Food prices rose at the fastest pace in over a year, and eggs are one of the primary divers of food inflation thus the frustration among voters in 2024 (the price of eggs was up 37% over the year before). Food prices are expected to rise 3.2% this year according to the Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability at Purdue University. Trump’s plan is to reduce energy costs by boosting production (domestic energy production is already at an all time high) and to resolve supply chain issues (which he cannot do as the private sector controls the supply chain). This is another way of saying he does not have a plan. Will the voters who held President Joe Biden accountable for this do the same for Trump, particularly if he doesn’t vigorously respond to avian flu - and quickly.
Farewell to Electric Vehicle Investment in the Heartland
President Donald Trump announced during his inaugural address that he would end the “electric vehicle mandate.” What he really means is that he would repeal an Environmental Protection Agency rule that requires auto manufacturers cut greenhouse gas emissions by half in new light- and medium-duty vehicles beginning in 2027. The EPA has estimated the rule would force auto manufacturers to build electric vehicles for about 30% to 56% of their new light-duty vehicles by 2032 and 20% to 32% of new medium duty vehicles.
The impact will dramatically harm EV manufacturing in northern Missouri, western and central Tennessee, and central Kentucky, most notably. How will those states respond to the dramatic job losses that could result from Trump’s policy now and in the future? If sales slow, that will certainly impact efforts to source lithium for electric vehicle batteries in Arkansas, which has also benefitted from considerable federal investment.
Off the Shelf
On Monday, Rachael Stuckey-Slaton and Monica Diodati, owners of the independent bookshop Two Friends Books, joined the Flyover Country podcast for a lively discussion about independent bookstores, book ownership, and making books more accessible.
Independent bookstores are on the rise nationally and, in fact, have doubled over the past 8 years. The literary arts are thriving across the Heartland, in places like Tulsa, Oklahoma, St. Louis, Missouri, Nashville, Tennessee, New Orleans, Louisiana, and Minneapolis, Minnesota. In addition to NW Arkansas, some of the best independent bookstores I have visited in recent years are Dawn Treader Books in Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I studied law, Square Books in Oxford, Mississippi, and Turnrow Book Co. in Greenwood, Mississippi, which suffered a devastating fire, and Burke’s Book Store in Memphis, Tennessee.
These are few of the 2024 favorites we discussed on the podcast. Intermezzo by Sally Rooney, Creation Lake by Rachel Kushner, and James by Percival Everett. Please support your local bookshop.
Heartland Tax Cut Enthusiasts Owe Biden a Thank You
As I noted last week, Heartland states continues to pursue income tax cuts, which have been palatable over the last four years thanks to the dramatic influx of federal funding thanks to President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan, the Infrastructure Bill, the CHIPS Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. Bobby Harrison argued a similar point in Mississippi Today.
No doubt, the tremendous cash surpluses that [Gov. Tate] Reeves and other state Republicans cite when defending their plan to eliminate the state’s income tax would not exist if not for the billions of dollars in federal funds that have been pumped into the state during Biden’s presidential tenure. Economists agree that those billions greatly boosted the Mississippi economy, leading to a record spike in state revenue collections.
While provisions of the American Rescue Plan prohibited states from using federal funds to pay for tax cuts, Republican attorneys general brought suit to challenge it only to be told by the Supreme Court that they lacked standing. Still, Heartland states pursued tax cuts, which have been justified by improved state budget coffers that appeared stronger than they were due to one-time federal cash injections.
Cocktail Party Top 5
This Substack from Joe Klein, journalist, commentator, and author of Primary Colors among other books, caught my attention. He took the Democratic Party to task for lacking “the courage to stand up to the real cause of the party’s demise—identity politics and its permissive impact on race, crime, immigration, education, traditional families.” He continued, “The Democrats, in the thrall of their consultant class, use too-much focus-tested language to sound real. They are the party of synthetic sensitivities, a ministry of pronouns, policing micro-aggressions unnoticed beyond the precincts of Ibram X. Kendi and his sham “anti-racism” center at Boston University.” I have written a lot about the challenges within the party, and perhaps in a future newsletter I’ll lay out some broader thoughts, but for now, reflect on Klein’s comments over a Tammany Jack (a Tammany Hall union boss favorite) with people doing the work on the ground to help the Democratic Party in middle America.
Kentucky became one of the first states in the South to ban corporal punishment in public schools statewide. Years ago, I published a paper titled, “Corporal Punishment After the Greenbrier, Arkansas Incident: Do Children Have the Rights They Deserve at School and at Home,” where I questioned why this practice was still on the books (and in practice in certain places) considering its harm. Recently, Jess Piper, who writes “The View from Rural Missouri” on Substack wrote a post titled, “Corporal Punishment: Why is the practice still legal in 2025?” asking similar questions. Mix a PTA Fundraiser and contact your local school board president.
The terrific filmmaker and artist, David Lynch, passed away after battling emphysema. I saw all of his films, including is masterwork “Mulholland Drive,” which I had to watch more than once to fully grasp, assuming I actually have. His television show, “Twin Peaks,” was delightful as were the very un-Lynchian and straightforward films “The Elephant Man” and “The Straight Story,” the latter set in Iowa and Wisconsin. Other, more obscure films, like “Lost Highway” and “Inland Empire” resonated less with me, but I always in awe of his artistry and ambition. Enjoy an Irish Coffee (Lynch loved black coffee) while screening one of his films with a cinephile.
The great southern humorist Roy Blount, Jr. has bid farewell to his column in Garden & Gun magazine. He’s written for that magazine for 18 years as part of an august writing career that has spanned 24 books, magazines, newspapers, screenplays, and stage plays. He wrote and starred in a one-man show, “Roy Blount’s Happy Hour and a Half,” and acted in dozens of films. He was a regular on the most popular radio and television programs in America and even earned comparisons to Mark Twain. His final column concluded, “I believe I got all the meat I could off this chicken bone.” Pour a Bulleit Bourbon (which enamored Blount, in 2007) and reminisce about great southern writers with your literary friends.
Elon Musk, President Donald Trump’s most important advisor and advocate as well as his most significant financial benefactor during the 2024 campaign spoke during the inauguration festivities on Monday in Washington, D.C. And this happened.
Right-wing extremists, white nationalists, and Neo-Nazis celebrated the gesture online. Musk, albeit a socially awkward goof, is very familiar with alt-right tactics, including his public support for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party. The Southern Poverty Law Center tracks hate groups in the U.S., which are on the rise (the Proud Boys were back in D.C. for the inauguration . . . a different vibe than January 6, 2021). Discuss this with civil rights activists over a pitcher of Planter’s Punch.
The Answer Is (Not) Blowing in the Wind
President Trump issued an executive order on Monday that will halt the building of wind farms, onshore and offshore, during his presidency. According to Politico it will, “end leasing to wind farms that “degrade our natural landscapes and fail to serve American energy consumers.”” Once more, it is an odd approach considering that four of the six largest beneficiaries of onshore wind energy are in the Heartland: Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
NextEra, a Florida-based company, operates the most wind projects in the United States. Florida is the president’s home state, and his decision will put a considerable strain on domestic production and jobs. From a domestic manufacturing perspective, General Electric stands to lose the most from Trump’s policy. During his inaugural address, Trump spoke, once again, about bringing American manufacturing back (American manufacturing is currently experiencing a considerable renaissance). I am not sure how this approach accomplishes that, considering this industry sector has been booming in America (it has doubled over the last 10 years) - and that’s before we consider offshore wind projects and their potential benefits. But I am well aware Trump abhors wind because of the birds and has past business experiences, not because of its efficacy.
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